I have been following an interesting discussion on the rules of thumb for social progress. Back in March last year, Sam Roggeveen, editor of The Interpreter, cited an observation from Andrew Lee Butters from Time Magazine:

“One of my favorite — if obvious — metrics of the health of civil society in any given place is celebratory gunfire. If locals mark major events like weddings, sporting victories or the start of spring break by shooting off a couple hundred rounds of high-velocity ammunition, it’s a sign that at the very least there’s something wrong with the police department, if not the social contract.”

Roggeveen adds his own rule of thumb relating to the political and social progress in foreign countries: ”the more that local police uniforms resemble military uniforms, the less liberal and democratic that country is likely to be.”

This month, he proposed another rule of thumb: ”A preference for military parades (particularly those featuring heavy weapons) is a strong indicator of significant military influence over the civilian government.” Apparently Turkey, has reinitiated parades, and the Iranians and Russians are fond of them. He mentions that the US does not have columns of tanks, missiles and heavy artillery going down Pennsylvania Ave. But he does make an exception for France as it does have such parades on Bastille Day.

This rule of thumb kicked started an interested blog dialogue. See this, and the responses to it here and here. Should also see this. And another exception to the rule seems to be India. And there is a good website on more rules of thumb. So in my humble way I would like to propose a rule of thumb:

Whenever a sporting victory of a nation is always celebrated by young men, in cars, horns and music blaring, flags waving, speeding at a hundred miles an hour. Causing a ruckus and general grief to all and sundry. It usually indicates: that it is a patriarchal society and youth employment is high. When this happens in western countries, such as say The Netherlands and Australia, the observation on this primitive, celebratory outburst of excess male testosterone is usually done by by people of a certain ethnic background ‘celebrating’ the victories of their native country. And that the same people are over represented in the nations gaols, (exception being the US and Australia), they come from a patriarchal home environment, unemployment is high and there is a lower level of higher education and there are issues with social integration including the ability to speak the host country’s language fluently.

On a side issue, I also want to observe wedding motorcades in western countries. Those who get married and honk horns whilst driving are simply causing noise pollution and it usually indicates a level of below average intelligence. Stick to having tin cans behind the car, leave the car horn alone.  And yes, I have a thing against honking car horns just for the fun of it. It has a purpose, it is not a substitute for a party popper.